[SYSK] Summer Movie Preview: May
April 27th, 2009 by Will O'HarganWith the summer blockbusters starting in just one week, I figured now would be as good a time as any to post the Bewildered Society Official Summer Movie Preview Guide. It tells you what you should know about all the movies coming out this summer, starting on May 1st and going all the way through the first weekend in August.
I’ll also tell you what the chances are the movie is worth watching and how well it can be expected to do at the box office. Disagree? Sound off in the comments.
Thanks to Box Office Mojo for the release date and past gross information and IMP Awards for almost all the posters you see below. Both sites should be a bookmark for every fan.
May 1
Movie: X-Men Origins: Wolverine.
SYSK: The prequel origins picture will expand on Wolverine’s past, first visited in X2: X-Men United. Don’t expect Brian Singer or anyone else from the X-Men movies to show up, everyone but Hugh Jackman has been recast. The movie follows the mutant from his youth through time, which turns out to be several hundred years. He will battle Sabertooth, William Stryker, Gambit, Deadpool and some new mutants created just for the movie. The trailer a lot of specticle and not a lot of story telling.
Any good?: Well, a work print has been leaked onto the internet, so you could see for yourself if you were really interested. Hugh Jackman remains the only person who could possibly play the role, and this time Gavin Hood (Rendition) will sit behind the directors chair. However, the writing staff is a bit sketchier, combining the talents of David Bendioff (Troy) and Skip Woods (Swordfish).
Bank: There’s no reason to think that this movie won’t do the kind of business the X-Men franchise is expected to do, but repeating the $100 million opening weekend is probably out of the question after fanboys were disapointed in the third. Expected it to do about as well as X2, ending at about $85 million for the weekend.
Movie: Ghosts of Girlfriends Past
SYSK: This rom-com crosses Charles Dickens with… well… Matthew McConaughey. McConaughey plays a philanderer who learns from three ghosts the truth he’s always known: Jennifer Garner is HOT the love of his life. This is counter-programing at it’s finest.
Any good?: The concept seems so simple for a high-concept rom-com that it’s amazing it hasn’t been done yet (or maybe it has). McConaughey has been hit (How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days) or miss (Fool’s Gold) of late, as has director Mark Waters. However, the supporting cast, including Michael Douglas and Emma Stone, is enough to suggest it might be, at the very least, fun.
Bank: McConaughey rom-coms tend to be good for about $20 million on opening weekend. How they do beyond that depends on the quality of the movie. However, the trailer features absolutly no shots of McConaughey shirtless, so it’s hard to tell.
Movie: Battle for Terra
SYSK: 3D animated movie with an all-star voice cast. However the movie seems way to political (humans have to take over another planet for survival) than your standard kid fare, and the designers have gone out of their way to make the humans indistingishable.
Any good?: Doubtful. Beware of animated movies where everyone is played by a name. Remember Doogal? I didn’t think so.
Bank: $10 million opening weekend would be overachieving for this film. Look for the year’s second 3D flop, following Jonas Brothers.
Who will win the weekend: Wolverine will win the weekend by leaps and bounds, doing at least three if not four times the business of the next nearest movie.
May 8
Movie: Star Trek
SYSK: A dangerous gamble by Paramount Pictures as they reimagine the Original Series using new–young–actors to play the original roles. They also hired J.J. Abrams to produce and direct, and it’s written by regular Abrams cohorts Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci. The bigger names (Eric Bana, Winona Ryder) are in minor roles while Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto take over the roles of Kirk and Spock, respectively.
Any good?: The buzz has been outstandingly positive, as have early reviews, and Re-imaginations are risky, but this one seems more Batman Begins or Casino Royale than Pink Panther or Superman Returns.
Bank: Star Trek movies have no exactly been box office gold, only IV (the one with the whales) broke $100 mil, and First Contact is the highest opening weekend at $30 million. However, the marketing campaign has been aimed at non-Trek fans (believing Trek fans will come anyway). Expect this one to shatter both those numbers in the first two weeks. Interest seems to be high as the HD trailer is the most downloaded of all time. $60 million opening weekend would not be a surprise.
Movie: Next Day Air
SYSK: Donald Faison (Turk from “Scrubs”) plays a delivery boy who drops off a bunch of drugs to the wrong house and gets caught between two groups fighting over the drugs. Mos Def co-stars.
Any good?: While Faison and Def seem like an awesome comedy pairing, the trailer suggests that the movie is more interested in the gunfights than the one liners, which is shame.
Bank: Say it again now: counter programming. Expect this one to do decent for maybe a week. We’re talking maybe $10 million opening weekend.
Who will win the weekend: Star Trek tops Wolverine, which will have a pretty big fall in it’s second week. Expect Next Day Air to come in fourth, at the highest.
May 15
Movie: Angels & Demons
SYSK: A sequel to The DaVinci Code, this movie reunites the writer, director and star of the previous film. However, this book is not the household name like it’s precursor.
Any good?: While the first movie was a box office hit, it wasn’t the smash that anyone expected (though it did better overseas), and many people said that the film was subpar. Perhaps they will escape the problems of miscasting and bad Tom Hanks hair that plauged the first film
Bank: Angels & Demons won’t match the $77 million put up by DaVinci. It might break $50 million and come close to 60.
Who will win the weekend: Angels & Demons leads the way as the only wide release.
May 22
Movie: Terminator: Salvation (May 21)
SYSK: The fourth Terminator movie and the second reboot of the summer. This time John Conner is Christian Bale who is leading the resistance, but it seems all those attempts in the other movies to change the past have just made things worse. Also, SkyNet are turning living people into terminators, for some reason. It will be the first Terminator movie to be rated PG-13.
Any good?: Christian Bale is the star. McG is the director. It looks to follow in the footsteps of the first two terminator movies, but it’s rated PG-13. The trailer is pretty cool. To tell you the truth, I have no idea.
Bank: With the PG-13 ranking, Terminator could easily climb to $60 million, but I expect a more modest $45 or $50.
Movie: Dance Flick
SYSK: From the Wayans Brothers, who brought you the R-rated Scary Movie movies, comes a parody of dance movies. There are jokes about how white people are different from black people, female dancers are skinny and male dancers are pretty gay.
Any good?: When was the last time a parody movie was any good? The first Austin Powers movie?
Bank:I think the release date for this movie was made with the thought that Terminator would be R-rated, forcing all the 16 year olds to go to this instead. Now that Terminator is open to all ages, this film seems more likely to be along the lines of Epic Movie than Scary Movie. $15 million would be a good opening for this film.
Movie: Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
SYSK: The sequel to the surprise box office smash comes on a holiday weekend near the end of the school year. The movie maintains much of the cast of the first film (including highlights Ricky Gervais, Owen Wilson, Robin Williams and Steve Coogan) and adds Amy Adams, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader, Hank Azaria and co-writers Robert Ben Garant and Thomas Lennon.
Any good?: It seems like this is a sequel that does what sequels originally did: made the story bigger and better. By moving the action to the Smithsonian, they add for the possibility of highjinks, and I have to admit the angry Lincoln got a snicker out of me. It seems Stiller is going all out to make these movies better by calling in favors from as many friends as he can.
Bank: The first movie only made $30 million the first weekend, but had a long shelf life, amassing over $250 million over it’s run. This movie should make more out of the gate, possibly as much as $50 million.
Who will win the weekend: Terminator has the extra day, however the lack of family movies out at this point in the month (Battle for Terra was the last one!) makes me think that Night at the Museum 2 will come out on top, though it will be the first interesting battle of the summer.
May 29
Movie: Up
SYSK: Pixar brings us the story of an old man who ties a bunch of balloons to his house and floats away to a far off land. Oh, and there’s a over-zealous Boy Scout trapped on his porch. And an evil guy in a blimp. And a talking dog!
Any good?: It’s a Pixar movie. And it has a talking dog!
Bank: While I don’t expect the $70 million that Finding Nemo and The Incredibles pulled in, I also don’t expect dip as low as the $45 million for Ratatouille. I think it’s more accessable than that film. And it has a talking dog! Somewhere around $55 million should be reasonable.
Movie: Drag Me to Hell
SYSK: Sam Raimi takes a break from counting the piles of money he made on the Spider-Man movies to direct an old(er)-school horror movie about a loan officer who is given a curse by a gypsy. And it has a talking dog! It stars Alison Lohman, Justin Long and the walking Jewish cliche David Paymer.
Any good?: It’s unclear. On one hand, Raimi obviously lost his magic touch with Spider-Man 3, but a return to his horrorish roots might be the refresher he needs. If the movie goes for the more psychological than physical, it could be a surprize summer hit.
Bank: Hard to say. On one hand, Raimi has his fan boys, on the other hand, original horror movie hits are few and far between these days. $12-$14 million might be a good weekend for this film, but word of mouth and the lack of horror in the early part of the summer could see it achieve more.
Who will win the weekend: Up. It will also be among the best reviewed movies of the year. Count on it.
Who will win the month: Wolverine may be poised to have the best opening weekend, but Star Trek could be a surprise smash hit. No matter what movie you see this month, it might be hard to find a seat in your theater, however.
That’s all for May. Look for June and July coming soon!
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